Economic Growth Undermines Paris Agreement Progress, New Study Finds
The Climate Progress Paradox
Despite significant improvements in carbon efficiency, rapid economic growth has pushed CO₂ emissions higher, undermining climate goals
Global CO₂ emissions continue to rise despite improvements in carbon intensity, creating a challenging path to climate targets (Credit: Communications Earth & Environment, 2025)
As climate researchers, we've been closely tracking global emissions since the landmark Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015. The agreement represented a historic moment—nearly every nation on Earth committing to limit global warming to well below 2°C. But nine years later, the question remains: are we on track?
A comprehensive new study published in Communications Earth & Environment provides a sobering answer. Using advanced Bayesian statistical methods, our research team at the University of Washington has analyzed emissions data from 2015-2024 to assess progress toward the Paris goals. The findings reveal a troubling paradox: while we're making impressive strides in carbon efficiency, these gains are being overwhelmed by rapid economic growth.
Key Research Finding
Global carbon intensity improved by 25% since 2015, but total CO₂ emissions still increased by 5.6% due to rapid economic growth. The projected temperature increase by 2100 has only slightly improved from 2.6°C to 2.4°C, with just a 17% chance of staying below 2°C.
The Statistical Approach: Bayesian Forecasting for Climate
Traditional climate projections rely on expert-designed scenarios, but our team has developed a fully statistical approach that treats future emissions as a probability distribution rather than fixed pathways. This Bayesian probabilistic method forecasts three key drivers:
- Population: Using UN demographic models
- GDP per capita: Modeling economic convergence toward a global frontier
- Carbon intensity: Tracking emissions per unit of economic output
By combining these forecasts, we can generate probabilistic projections of future emissions and temperatures, providing a more nuanced understanding of our climate future.
The Progress Paradox: Efficiency Gains vs. Economic Growth
The data reveals a story of two competing trends. On one hand, we've seen remarkable progress in carbon intensity—the amount of CO₂ emitted per dollar of economic activity. Between 2015 and 2024:
| Region | Carbon Intensity Improvement | Annual Improvement Rate |
|---|---|---|
| World | 25% | 3.1% per year |
| China | 37% | 4.9% per year |
| United States | 32% | 4.2% per year |
| Germany | 37% | 4.9% per year |
These improvements are substantial—nearly three times the pre-Paris average of 1.1% per year. But here's the catch: global GDP grew even faster, increasing by 41% over the same period. This economic expansion completely canceled out the efficiency gains, leading to a net increase in total emissions.
Country-Level Stories: Mixed Progress Across Major Economies
China: Efficiency Champion, Emissions Growth Leader
China presents perhaps the most striking case study. The country exceeded its carbon intensity target, reducing emissions per GDP unit by 37% compared to its NDC target of 36%. Yet total emissions grew by a massive 18% due to extraordinary economic growth.
United States: Modest Progress, Missed Targets
The U.S. reduced total emissions by 10%, falling short of its 15% NDC target but performing much better than the statistical projection of a 2% increase. Carbon intensity improved by 32%, close to the 34% implied by its NDC.
Germany: Overachieving on Both Fronts
Germany stands out as a success story, reducing emissions by 28% compared to its NDC target of 9%. The country also achieved a 37% improvement in carbon intensity.
The Carbon Intensity Gap: Room for Improvement
Despite similar percentage improvements, absolute carbon intensity levels vary dramatically:
- Germany: Lowest carbon intensity among major economies
- United States: 50% higher carbon intensity than Germany
- China: Over three times Germany's carbon intensity
This suggests substantial potential for rapid improvement in higher-emitting countries by adopting technologies and policies already proven in lower-intensity economies.
Temperature Projections: Slight Improvement, Major Challenges Remain
Based on data through 2024, our updated projections show:
- Expected temperature increase by 2100: 2.4°C (down from 2.6°C in 2015 projections)
- Probability of staying below 2°C: 17% (virtually unchanged from 18%)
- Risk of catastrophic warming above 3°C: 9% (down substantially from 26%)
While the reduction in worst-case scenario risk is encouraging, the minimal improvement in our central forecast underscores how much warming is already "baked in" due to cumulative emissions.
Scenarios Analysis: What If Countries Meet Their Commitments?
We modeled several scenarios to understand the potential impact of different policy pathways:
| Scenario | Projected Warming | Probability Below 2°C |
|---|---|---|
| Current Trends | 2.4°C | 17% |
| NDC-1s Met + Current Trends After 2030 | 2.3°C | 20% |
| NDC-1s Met + Continued Improvement | 2.1°C | 34% |
| NDC-2s Met + Continued Improvement | 2.0°C | 53% |
The Path Forward: What's Needed to Meet Paris Goals
Our analysis identifies the scale of additional effort needed. To have an 80% chance of staying below 2°C, global emissions would need to decline by 4.2% annually—nearly double the current rate.
For major emitters, the required increases in ambition beyond current NDCs are substantial:
| Country | Additional Reduction Needed Beyond NDC-1 | Additional Reduction Needed Beyond NDC-2 |
|---|---|---|
| China | 13% | 2% |
| United States | 14% | 4% |
| Germany | 36% | 1% |
| India | 19% | 3% |
Limitations and Future Research Directions
While our statistical approach provides robust projections, several limitations should be noted:
- Non-CO₂ gases: Our model focuses primarily on CO₂, though other greenhouse gases contribute to warming
- Climate feedbacks: We don't explicitly model how climate change might affect economic growth or emissions
- Technological breakthroughs: The model assumes gradual improvement rather than sudden technological transformations
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Subscribe to Climate InsightsConclusion: The Urgent Need for Decoupling
Our research reveals a critical challenge: we're improving carbon efficiency, but not fast enough to overcome economic growth. The fundamental task for climate policy is to accelerate the decoupling of emissions from economic activity.
The good news is that carbon intensity improvements have accelerated since the Paris Agreement. The bad news is that they need to accelerate even further while potentially rethinking our models of economic development.
As researchers, we see both reasons for cautious optimism and clear calls for greater ambition. The technologies and policies exist to make rapid progress—what's needed is the political will and global cooperation to implement them at the necessary scale.
Research Summary Based On: Jiang, J., Shi, S. & Raftery, A.E. Mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and meet the Paris Agreement have been offset by economic growth. Commun Earth Environ 6, 823 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02743-x
Related Keywords: Paris Agreement, climate change, carbon emissions, economic growth, carbon intensity, Bayesian forecasting, climate projections, NDCs, decarbonization, climate policy
Note: This blog post summarizes and interprets existing academic research for educational purposes. All findings and data referenced are from the original study cited above.
Why Climate Progress Since the Paris Agreement Isn’t What It Seems
Why Climate Progress Since the Paris Agreement Isn’t What It Seems
Has the Paris Agreement Worked? New Research Reveals a Complex Answer
As a researcher focused on climate and statistics, I often get asked a seemingly simple question: "Are we on track to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement?"
The answer, according to a significant new study published in Communications Earth & Environment, is far from simple. The research, led by Jitong Jiang, Skylar Shi, and Adrian E. Raftery, provides the first comprehensive statistical assessment of global climate progress since the agreement was adopted in 2015. The findings present a paradox of significant progress being undermined by a powerful, countervailing force.
The Paris Agreement & The Probabilistic Approach
The 2015 Paris Agreement set an ambitious goal: to limit global temperature rise to "well below 2°C" above pre-industrial levels by the year 2100. To project our climate future, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has traditionally used predefined socioeconomic scenarios. However, since 2017, an alternative, fully statistical "Bayesian probabilistic" approach has been developed. This method doesn't rely on a handful of storylines but uses vast historical data to forecast a range of probable futures, giving us odds for different outcomes.
This approach breaks down carbon emissions into a simple but powerful identity:
Emissions = Population × GDP per capita × Carbon Intensity
By forecasting each of these three drivers—population, economic growth, and the carbon efficiency of that growth—the model can generate a probabilistic forecast for our climate trajectory.
Key Findings from the First 9 Years of the Paris Agreement (2015-2024)
The study analyzed data through 2024 to see how the outlook has changed. Here’s what they found:
- The Good News: Carbon Intensity Plummeted. The world made substantial progress in decarbonizing its economy. Global carbon intensity (the amount of CO₂ emitted per unit of GDP) fell by an impressive 25% from 2015-2024. This was an annual improvement rate of 3.1%, far faster than the 1.1% rate seen before the Paris Agreement.
- The Bad News: Emissions Still Went Up. Despite this efficiency gain, total global CO₂ emissions increased by 5.6% over the same period. Why? Because global economic growth (GDP on a purchasing-power-parity basis) exploded by 41%. This rapid growth completely canceled out the gains from improved carbon intensity.
- A Slightly Improved Temperature Forecast. Based on trends up to 2024, the median projected global temperature rise by 2100 is now 2.4°C, a slight improvement from the 2.6°C projected in 2015. However, the chance of staying below the Paris target of 2°C remains dismally low at 17% (virtually unchanged from 18%).
- The Risk of Catastrophe Has Fallen. There is a silver lining. The probability of the most catastrophic warming—over 3°C—has dropped substantially, from 26% to just 9%. This is a direct result of the accelerated decline in carbon intensity.
- A Stark Divide in Carbon Intensity. The study highlights vast differences between nations. For instance, in 2024, the carbon intensity of China's economy was over three times higher than Germany's, while the USA's was about 50% higher. This reveals a massive opportunity for high-emitting countries to rapidly adopt cleaner technologies and policies.
What Does This Mean for Our Climate Future?
This research paints a nuanced picture. On one hand, the world is getting better at producing economic value with fewer emissions—the green transition is underway. On the other hand, the sheer scale of economic growth is making it incredibly difficult to bend the emissions curve downward.
The study also modeled what would happen under different scenarios:
- Current Trends ("None"): Median warming of 2.4°C.
- Meet Initial Pledges ("Adjusted"): If all countries meet their first-round 2030 targets but then stop, warming is 2.3°C.
- Sustained Action ("Continued"): If countries meet their 2030 targets and continue reducing emissions at the same rate, warming could be limited to 2.1°C, with a 34% chance of staying under 2°C.
This last point is crucial. It shows that the initial pledges (NDCs) are not enough, but if they are seen as a starting point for sustained, long-term action, we can get much closer to the Paris goals.
The Bottom Line: A Race Between Two Forces
The last nine years have set the stage for a critical race. In one lane is the accelerating pace of decarbonization—the remarkable improvement in carbon intensity driven by policy, innovation, and shifting investments. In the other lane is the powerful engine of global economic growth, which continues to push total emissions higher.
So far, growth is winning. But the study gives us reason for cautious optimism. The dramatic drop in the risk of worst-case scenario warming shows that our efforts are not in vain. They are changing the odds. The challenge now is to supercharge the positive trends so they can finally outpace the relentless growth in global GDP.
The path to a stable climate is still open, but it requires an immediate and radical acceleration of our efforts. The data is clear: we are making progress, but not nearly fast enough.
This blog post is based on the open-access research article “Mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and meet the Paris Agreement have been offset by economic growth” by Jiang et al., published in Communications Earth & Environment (2025).
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