Agroforestry as a Natural Climate Solution: A Review of Recent Findings from Southeast Asia

As a researcher working at the intersection of land use, climate change, and sustainability, I often come across studies that challenge conventional wisdom or add much-needed nuance to complex environmental issues. A recent paper published in Nature Sustainability by Teo et al. (2025) does exactly that—shedding light on the role of agroforestry in reducing deforestation across Southeast Asia.

Agroforestry—the integration of trees into agricultural landscapes—is widely praised for its local benefits: improved soil health, biodiversity support, and carbon sequestration. But does it actually help reduce deforestation at a larger, landscape scale? This question is critical as policymakers and conservationists look for scalable natural climate solutions.

What the Study Did

Using causal inference methods—specifically, propensity score matching—the authors analyzed satellite-derived data from 2015 to 2023 across 38 subnational regions in Southeast Asia. They compared deforestation rates in 1-km pixels with and without agroforestry, while controlling for biophysical and socio-economic factors that could influence the outcome.

This approach allowed them to isolate the effect of agroforestry on deforestation, moving beyond correlation to causation—a significant strength of the study.

Key Findings at a Glance

• In 22 out of 38 regions, agroforestry significantly reduced deforestation.
• Overall, agroforestry led to a net reduction of 250,319 hectares per year in deforestation.
• This translates to 58.8 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent avoided annually—a substantial climate benefit.
• However, in 16 regions, agroforestry was associated with increased deforestation, highlighting that context matters.

Takeaway: Agroforestry isn’t a silver bullet—it works well in some contexts and not in others. But on balance, it’s a net positive for forest conservation in Southeast Asia.

Regional Insights and Nuances

Areas where agroforestry reduced deforestation included Laos, northern Vietnam, parts of Myanmar, Sumatra, Borneo, and peninsular Malaysia—many of which are deforestation hotspots with high carbon stock forests. These findings suggest that agroforestry can be a valuable tool in regions under high land-use pressure.

On the flip side, eastern Cambodia—another deforestation hotspot—saw an increase in forest loss linked to agroforestry. This duality underscores the importance of local drivers like market access, land tenure, and governance.

Why This Matters for Climate Policy

This study provides robust, large-scale evidence that agroforestry can contribute to climate mitigation not only through carbon sequestration but also by avoiding deforestation. This dual benefit is often overlooked in climate strategies.

For countries like Indonesia, which has rapidly expanded its social forestry programs, these findings offer encouragement. Well-designed agroforestry systems could help achieve national climate goals while supporting rural livelihoods.

Limitations and Future Directions

The authors openly acknowledge that their post-hoc analyses could not fully explain why agroforestry increased deforestation in some areas. This isn’t surprising—deforestation drivers are highly localized and complex. Future research should dig deeper into these contexts, perhaps through mixed-methods approaches that combine spatial analysis with community surveys.

Final Thoughts

This paper is a welcome addition to the growing body of evidence supporting agroforestry as a natural climate solution. It moves the conversation from “Does agroforestry work?” to “Where and how does it work best?”—a more nuanced and actionable question.

For researchers, policymakers, and practitioners, the message is clear: agroforestry deserves a prominent place in regional and national climate action plans—but it must be implemented with attention to local ecological and social conditions.

Reference:
Teo, H.C., Lamba, A., Ng, S.J.W. et al. Reduction of deforestation by agroforestry in high carbon stock forests of Southeast Asia. Nat Sustain 8, 358–362 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-025-01532-w